Capability: Propensity Modelling - forecasting

How Earls Court Development Company use data to help inform a new neighbourhood

Posted on: 2 May 2024
How Earls Court Development Company use data to help inform a new neighbourhood

Background

The Earls Court Development Company (ECDC) has a vision to bring the wonder back to Earls Court. Their latest proposals demonstrate how Earls Court will be put back on the map, re-emerging as a destination to discover wonder, an ecosystem for creative talent and a showcase for one of the fastest growing industries in the world – clean and climate tech. The masterplan includes 4,000 new homes, 12,000 jobs, culture, community, retail, dining and leisure. 60% of the land is unbuilt, maximising open spaces and opportunities for nature to thrive. The site will have a series of cultural venues, alongside a commercial campus creating a global destination for clean and climate tech research and skills. Sustainability will be the green thread, with one of the largest zero-carbon energy loops in the UK powering the site. A hybrid planning application will be submitted this summer and the first phase will commence in 2026.

The Challenge

  • Understanding how current plans would impact the local market, what retail opportunities should be created and how to create a robust masterplan that would address these factors, despite London’s complex market and a high amount of local competition.
  • Gauging customers and audience — who is already here, what they do, what they need and where they go — in relation to other large-scale central London developments and regeneration master plans in King’s Cross and Battersea.
  • Prior to partnering with CACI, the company solely relied on qualitative data to understand peoples’ perceptions and inform their decision making, such as speaking to people within the community and stakeholders.

The Solution

ECDC was keen to ensure that an optimised neighbourhood would be created for residents both within and outside of the development along with workers and users of the space. To achieve this, CACI interpreted and analysed raw data and numbers for the company, bringing them to life and narrating the results through comparable’s and benchmarks.

It’s very clear in the presentations that we’re given — whether it’s for local authorities or internally — that the evidence base is robust and ultimately indisputable. That was helpful in providing that context and equips us with a robust way to create and define the master plan moving forwards.

Tom Branton, Development Director at ECDC

The CACI data sources included as part of this study were:

  • Mobile App Data: Mobile location data generated a precise view into the location’s catchment and visitor profiles, ensuring ECDC would innately understand how visitor profiles and their respective behaviours varied over time. This helped the company assess who users are along with their demographic and spending power, along with insights into how visits changed over a day and week.
  • Acorn: CACI’s consumer segmentation model, Acorn, enabled ECDC’s understanding of who new residents would be and their needs, and who would shop at the development.
  • Location Dynamics: Location Dynamics is CACI’s spatial interaction model, creating a digital mirror of the UK retail landscape replicating consumer flows. The engine of the model is a machine learning algorithm that provides future forecast catchments. For ECDC, CACI used Location Dynamics to understand the expected current catchment and spend, as well as leakage to nearby destinations, to provide a detailed understanding of the local retail landscape.

The Results

  • Newfound understanding of the ‘size of the prize’ of wider London and tourist demographics and audiences. ECDC historically relied on gut instinct when it came to decision making, but working with CACI ensured they were backed with concrete evidence. For example, CACI’s data showed that one-third of the total potential spend in the development area could come from out of catchment.
  • Enhanced decision-making through evidence-based data on the community. With the development situated across both the London Borough of Hammersmith and Fulham and the Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea, their perceptions of the surrounding community to inform decision-making — while strong — are now rooted in evidential data. This has served to alter their perceptions to ensure that a comprehensive understanding of residents and borough dwellers can be met and their audience narrative can be shaped accordingly.

The Future

In the coming years, CACI will continue to support ECDC in the data-backed planning and construction of residential units, retail landscape and office space development.

Read the case study:

You can access and download the full case study here. If you have any questions or want to learn more about CACI’s solutions, please get in touch with us.

It’s all about demand

Posted on: 8 December 2020
It’s all about demand

Understanding demand is a key challenge for the water industry as it is a stepping stone in helping solve several puzzles such as distribution, understanding leakage, and helping customers reduce their water use. With some areas of the UK having low meter penetration, and standard meters only being read annually or even less frequently; demographic data is a key aspect in modelling demand to meet these challenges.

Recently, CACI ran a roundtable discussion on all things demand to understand how companies are tackling demand forecasting currently, and what innovations are being explored for the future. We ran the roundtable in conjunction with Anglian Water to share the work they are currently doing in this area, and Badger Meter who were part of the winning team at the recent “Innovate East” Hackathon.

USING DATA TO UNDERSTAND DEMAND – ADAM GRAY, ANGLIAN WATER

Anglian Water is one of the largest geographic water regions, spanning the East of England from Grimsby to Basildon. Unusually, Anglian has a 90% penetration of meters across their region.

One of the biggest challenges currently facing Anglian Water, as one of the driest areas in the UK, is climate change.  The increased risk of drought and predicted reduction in rainfall for the region is a huge concern for the demand of water.

Another major challenge that Anglian is tackling is the continually increasing population growth in the area. Located to the north and east of London, Anglian Water’s region contains 3 of the 5 fastest growing towns in England – Peterborough, Cambridge, and Milton Keynes. This means that in some areas the population could grow by more than 28% by 2045, again causing a huge increase in water demand.

To help tackle these challenges, it’s important to accurately understand the level of demand and therefore be able to calculate and tackle leakage in the area. To do this, Anglian use three main work streams:

  • First, the survey of domestic consumption (SodCon) for which Anglian has 2,000 domestic customers on flow meters, collecting data every 15 minutes. CACI’s geodemographic segmentation Acorn is used to ensure a representative sample of customers have the flow meters.
  • Secondly, for customers that are metered annually, Acorn is applied in conjunction with CACI’s Household Occupancy data to calculate the average daily consumption.
  • Thirdly, Anglian has approximately 17,000 customers on smart meters which collect hourly data. Acorn is applied to this data to again sort them into cohorts to build corresponding models.

The importance of smart meters in an area that is being increasingly challenged in terms of demand cannot be understated. Anglian has a programme in place to get 70% of their customers upgraded to smart meters by 2030, in order to further improve their understanding of how customers use water and plan for future local demand. Acorn will again be used in supporting the build of these models and to help quantify the day-to-day demand in areas that aren’t smart metered.

In addition, the smart meter data is a game-changer in terms of the understanding, modelling and reporting of leakage in a way that Anglian hasn’t been able to do before.

HELPING CUSTOMER SAVE WATER (AND MONEY) – ANNA CRISP, ANGLIAN WATER AND MICHAEL DAVIES, BADGER METER

At the beginning of September, Anglian Water along with Welsh Water and SES Water hosted the event ‘Innovate East’ – a two-week event focussed on innovation in the water industry. As part of the event, a data hack was held to explore what insights and actions could be driven from smart meter data.

The hack had the challenge statement of ‘Helping customers save water (and money)’ and teams were given Anglian’s smart meter data, along with occupancy data and CACI’s Household Acorn data to find innovative ways to approach and answer the challenge.

Using the above statement on the level of water reduction that is being targeted, Michael and the team approached this challenge with the focus on reducing customers waste use of water.

The first step in their approach was to answer the question – what is considered to be ‘excess use’? The team took raw data from a two-person household to look at an average day’s typical water use. From this, they were able to match behaviours to peaks on the graph as can be seen in the image below.

You can see that the activities with high levels of consumption, but low levels of frequency, can be identified as water being wasted and are the activities that are key to target to reduce water use.

By understanding the different ‘excess use’ patterns of different Acorn groups, this information can then be used to create personalised communications to customers to help them better understand their waste habits and to encourage them to consider alternative options. For example, being able to suggest a variable flush to reduce excessive water being used by toilet systems.

The team then proposed an app, ‘Pipedream’, to demonstrate how this would work. Using best practice from the energy industry as a guide, customers would be able to download the app and visualise their daily consumption against a set reduction target. The team also proposed adding options to demonstrate the change in water usage when different activities were chosen. For example, what happens to their water use if they decide to switch to baths instead of showers. This can then link into a reward scheme to encourage users in better water saving habits.

HOW ARE WATER COMPANIES APPROACHING THE CHALLENGE OF DEMAND MODELLING AND INNOVATION?

The roundtables also included discussion from representatives from other water companies sharing their views, examples of best practice and innovative ideas for future approaches to reducing consumption.

Points raised ranged from the importance of understanding the potentially contradictory view that larger households are naturally more water efficient than single person households (and how this can lead to flaws in using Per Capita Consumption (PCC) rather than Per Household Consumption (PHC) in demand calculations), to examples of how quality and timely communications have been proven to reduce water use.

Naturally conversations turned to Covid 19 and the clear evidence of changing behaviours and local demand, and potential ways in which this can be modelled and evidenced.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Look out for our next roundtable in the series which will be focussed on understanding the impact that Covid has had on financial vulnerability in the water sector.

Please do not hesitate to get in touch should you want to hear more!