Urban 'gastro' pubs to benefit from smoking ban

New laws will encourage young professionals to eat out, whilst smokers plan to stay away

The forthcoming smoking ban will present increased opportunities for upmarket pubs offering food according to findings released today by consumer analysts CACI. While gastro pubs may thrive, CACI predicts there are difficult times ahead for traditional community taverns with limited opportunities for ‘smoking areas’.

CACI commissioned YouGov to carry out the survey. The results were analysed using CACI’s geodemographic consumer classification system, ACORN, to identify the effect of the smoking ban on pub usage by different consumer types.

The analysis found highly educated 25-35 year olds in upmarket metropolitan areas and affluent towns will be the target market for pubs after the smoking ban. In these areas some 75 per cent of adults will eat out in pubs after the ban, well above the national average of 64 per cent.

The Loss of the Smokers map shows how pubs in certain areas of the country will suffer a severe loss in customer numbers due to smokers staying away.

According to the research, it is older smokers who have the strongest views about the smoking ban with 65 per cent of over-50s smokers saying they will never eat in smoke-free pubs compared to 52 per cent of all smokers. On-licence operators will need to work hard to communicate the availability of shelters and other unenclosed ‘smoking areas’ in order to convince smokers to continue eating out in their establishments.

Following implementation of the smoking ban, the survey suggests a five per cent increase in pub visitors in England & Wales. However, despite the boost in the number of pub users, the percentage of consumers eating out in pubs is expected to decline slightly from 66 per cent to 64 per cent as pubs to lose their attraction as an eating venue for committed smokers.

CACI predicts a wide variation in consumers’ reactions to the smoking ban across demographic groups and whilst some pubs may have the opportunity to increase trade others can expect a decline. For those bars serving affluent metropolitan and suburban areas there are opportunities to promote the smoke-free environment for eating out.

The Eating Out in Pubs map shows the potential numbers of people eating out in pubs after the ban.

Much of this potential success will come from persuading existing consumers to enjoy pub grub more frequently instead of visiting restaurants. For example, 29 per cent of young adults starting out on the professional and managerial ladder expect to eat out in pubs more than 3 times a month after the smoking ban compared to only 17 per cent of them before the ban.

The research also shows that women are more likely to visit pubs with 80 per cent of women expecting to use pubs after the ban this represents a 7 percent increase.

Commenting on the findings, Ian Thurman, Head of Location Analysis at CACI, said:

“there are challenging times ahead for pub operators and it will be vitally important for owners to carefully review their estates and improve understanding of their local consumers. The operators who identify the pubs with increased potential following the ban will see good returns on their investments."