Gunwharf Quays

Gunwharf Quays is an award winning innovative mixed use development. It combines a number of complimentary retail and leisure facilities including a 20,000m² factory outlet, 23 cosmopolitan bars and restaurants, a 14 screen cinema, bowling complex, hotel, casino and 500m² of boat berths.

The challenge

Having achieved strong growth since opening in February 2001, the centre's management were refining their asset management strategy and business plan to ensure the continued successful growth of the site. To underpin this plan, CACI were approached to provide an assessment of market position and identify opportunities for further improving performance. A key requirement of the study was for CACI to accurately measure retail potential, given that the site has significant tourist and leisure facilities and derives a substantial proportion of its sales through these non-resident sources.

The solution

Retail Footprint, CACI's model of comparison goods shopping patterns, was used to identify the retail catchment and predict resident shopping potential. A separate tourism and leisure assessment was undertaken to predict additional 'spin off' market potential from non-residents. Modelled visitor demand was then aggregated to give a new estimate of total site potential and exit survey data was used to validate the composition of residents, tourists and leisure visitors in the overall visitor profile. Having arrived at a robust estimate of potential, CACI then conducted a detailed assessment of sales and shopper performance at the scheme.

Sales performance was investigated by comparing turnover for individual occupiers and aggregated merchandise categories against revised market potential in order to identify specific areas with headroom for improvement. This analysis was accompanied by a detailed evaluation of tenant mix, using benchmark and capacity techniques to identify a sustainable provision of floorspace by merchandise category. Performance was further linked to market opportunity through an assessment of the appropriateness of occupiers to the lifestyle based requirements of key visitors groups.

Shopper performance was evaluated through comparing exit survey respondents against CACI's predicted shopper profile in order to identify which shopper ACORN groups were responding and not responding to the site's offer. CACI used Retail Footprint to identify areas of visitor underperformance across the catchment, using customer fulfillment techniques to determine whether this was linked to competitive or retail mix issues.

The results and benefits

CACI identified that the combined resident, tourist and leisure demand at Gunwharf Quays is 30% higher than residential potential alone. CACI also identified that although there are strong synergies between the core retail offer and leisure users, certain key lifestyle groups were being underrepresented as a result of gaps in the offer. CACI made recommendations on leasing and marketing activity, focusing upon those opportunities with greatest potential for improvement.

Opportunities for the retail offer were addressed by identifying optimum replacements for the weakest performing occupiers on the basis of sustainable sector capacity and a strong 'fit' with the lifestyle profile of current or target visitors. Marketing was supported through delivery of a priority list of postcodes where a more appropriate occupier line up would best improve the patronage of underrepresented lifestyle groups.

Mike Davidson, Managing Director at Gunwharf Quays Management Ltd comments,

“CACI undertook a very detailed analysis of the market at Gunwharf Quays, which captured the complex nature of activity at the site. This analysis was fundamental in identifying a number of key objectives and helped us to refine our strategy to build on our success. We continue to utilise CACI's recommendations in our ongoing leasing and marketing activity.”

Retail Footprint