The Guinea Group

Junction One, just outside the town of Antrim, is Northern Ireland's largest and most successful factory outlet centre. The 163,000ft² centre opened in May 2004

The challenge

CACI's involvement goes back to the early stages of planning the development. Initially, the partnership required in-depth market analysis to understand feasibility, support financing, to plan the retail offer and underpin letting of the scheme.

This was not without challenges as CACI had not previously built a shopping model in Northern Ireland, while the general perception of occupiers from outside the Province is that it is dominated by low status lifestyle groups.

The solution

CACI initially undertook the analysis of potential using drive time catchments and benchmarking techniques to compare Junction One against similar locations in mainland Great Britain. A detailed assessment of retail competition and household expenditure identified very strong levels of expenditure, particularly on fashion and a significant lack of 'quality' retail provision in the Province.

From this initial assessment, CACI identified strong consumer demand for an outlet centre and determined that with high levels of household spending, the potential offer should be superior in position to Cheshire Oaks. CACI devised a sustainable retail mix strategy and used portfolio benchmarking techniques to identify those occupiers best placed to exploit the lifestyle requirements of anticipated shoppers.

With a relatively small resident population in Northern Ireland (1.5 million), it was clear that Junction One would need to achieve much stronger market penetration than typical UK outlet centres, if it was to achieve industry performance benchmarks. CACI developed a sophisticated gravity model to predict shopping patterns and forecast performance post opening and outputs were key in convincing investors and potential occupiers that this would be the case.

When Junction One was introduced as a new centre, outputs from the model confirmed that weak competition and strong brand appeal would attract shoppers from across Northern Ireland and identified that Junction One would achieve top performing sales densities from opening. This positioning formed the basis of generic marketing information and targeted reports which supported letting approaches to UK and international occupiers.

The results and benefits

CACI's research provided the Junction One Development Partnership, key stakeholders and potential occupiers with a robust estimate of performance based upon understanding how Junction One should attract key shopping groups to the site. This 'vision' was of key interest in assisting and informing the decision making process of investment partners and occupiers of the viability of the location.

Following a very successful launch period, CACI continue to work with the Partnership to monitor and refine performance through exit survey analysis and this work has confirmed the accuracy of CACI's pre opening predictions.

John Drummond, Managing Director of The Guinea Group comments,

“The analysis and consultancy advice provided by CACI in relation to Junction One has proved valuable on a number of levels. It has helped us in our initial decision to proceed with the development of Junction One and in planning the eventual size of the project. It has been invaluable in supporting the letting team in securing tenants for the development, as so many retailers also use CACI and therefore there is a high degree of trust by retailers in CACI’s projections.

"The CACI analysis and its informed application guided and informed our decisions in planning the merchandise and tenant mix, both in securing the right merchandise mix for the catchment and forecasting current and future market potential and turnover expectations. The depth and the quality of the CACI research and analysis provided informed advice which greatly assisted investment decisions.

"Now that the Centre has opened, CACI continue to work on several areas of Junction One for us, including real time research analysis, comparison analysis, marketing and advertising activity audit, future planning and future development strategy. The depth and quality of the CACI team and their knowledge of the factory outlet sector is in my opinion unequalled in the market place and we continue to use their full range of services on our other projects, both current and future"