Greater London Authority (Public Sector)

With the population of London set to grow by 700,000 over the next 15 years the GLA are working to ensure the capital develops the retail landscape to cope with this increased demand. The Authority need to ensure that the capital’s network of town centres can continue to meet the needs of London residents.

In order to provide a framework for London’s retail development, the GLA required an in-depth understanding of how consumer retail expenditure patterns are going to change between now and 2016.

Solution

CACI have worked with each element of the retail sector, Investors, Developers and Retailers, for many years to model changes in retail demand to deliver robust consumer forecasts. Drawing upon its established methodology for creating ‘small area’ expenditure projections (and incorporating the GLA’s on figures on population and macro-economic growth), CACI defined expenditure level for all 33 London Boroughs. These projections encompassed 83 different categories of expenditure for every year from 2001 until 2016.

Furthermore, in addition to simply defining expenditure at shoppers ‘place of residence’, CACI drew upon its knowledge of consumer behaviour to understand shopper flows between Boroughs (and indeed in and out of London). To accurately reflecting the fact that consumer behaviour rarely respects administrative boundaries CACI employed Retail Footprint, its overlapping comparison goods catchment model, to determine how these flows are driven by the provision of retailers and the requirements of the consumer.

This detailed analysis has enabled the Greater London Authority to better understand the required retail provision and the ability of each Borough to service its residents ongoing needs. For each Borough CACI detailed:

	Total expenditure in the Borough’s retail centres
	Spend by Borough residents in its retail centres
	Incoming expenditure (spend by residents of other Boroughs or from outside Greater London)
	Outgoing expenditure (spend by the Boroughs resident in other centres)

Results

The GLA are now fully aware of the significant forecast growth in expenditure, where this growth is taking place and the challenges facing the capital’s network of town centres to meet the needs of London residents.

CACI’s projections suggest that resident expenditure in Greater London will grow from £60 billion in 2001, to £121 billion in 2016 (in current prices). The borough level analysis highlights the challenges facing each authority as they try to secure retail investment, manage demand and ensure centres work for residents and visitors.

A full copy of the report can be downloaded from the GLA website at: www.london.gov.uk

Implementation

The report completed by CACI was presented at City Hall to an audience comprising the leading property investors, centre developers, local authority planners and key stakeholders in London’s future.

CACI’s analysis has been used to inform both the Examination in Public of the London Plan and initial work on the new Sub Regional Development Frameworks. It will also form the basis of the assessment of retail floor-space requirements. It is anticipated that a second stage of analysis will provide a further refined input to the Sub Regional Development Frameworks and individual Borough’s Unitary Development Plans.

Speaking at the BCSC event, London: An opportunity for retail-led regeneration, John Lett, Strategic Planning Manager for the Greater London Authority said;

“Town centres have a central role in London’s future development and community life. CACI’s work headlines a new understanding of consumer expenditure patterns and will help co-ordinate town centre and retail planning across London.”

	Retail Footprint
	Expenditure Estimates