Forth Ports PLC

Forth Ports PLC is the largest port grouping in Scotland, the second largest in the UK in terms of tonnage and the third largest in terms of market capitalisation.

The company is a major landowner in the Edinburgh region and is overseeing the development of 10,000 new homes in and around Edinburgh's waterfront in the Leith and Granton areas.

The challenge

CACI were tasked with quantifying the current profile of Leith and Granton in terms of affluence, key demographics, lifestyle and lifestage. Forth Ports also want to understand:

	Since development activity began, who have moved into the area, where did they move from and where in Leith or Granton did they move to?
	How much did they pay and based on their income, what could they (and therefore future buyers) afford?
	Who are the key purchasers and what is their lifestyle/demographic profile?
	Is there a pattern/seasonality in frequency of home purchases?

Finally, based on the transaction analysis described above, what will the affluence and lifestyle profile of the areas be like in 10 years time?, and what are the implications for pricing, phasing and type of development in Leith and Granton?

The solution

CACI used Land Registry data to track the origin and destination of homebuyers in the Leith and Granton districts of north Edinburgh, profiling purchasers by ACORN, house price and income. From this CACI was able to prioritise the key types of people to attract to the areas based on lifestyle, life stage and overall affluence profile.

CACI then identified specific areas with high concentrations of these target ACORN types (at postcode level) for direct marketing campaigns. The household transaction data matched with ACORN allowed CACI to forecast the future profile of Leith and Granton. Based on these forecasts, CACI devised a total development strategy incorporating recommendations on optimum pricing, phasing and type of development activity for Leith and Granton.

The results and benefits

The project identified ongoing gentrification of the area with a strong influx of younger metropolitan lifestyle groups but increasing representation of the most affluent 'suburban' lifestyle groups, particularly with recent developments such as Britannia Quay and Queens Quay. CACI identified a strong correlation between the ACORN mix of residents and ability to afford higher prices, with schemes dominated by the more affluent 'Wealthy Achievers' commanding significantly higher prices than schemes dominated by 'Urban Prosperity' and other groups.

The project identified significant 'headroom' within buyers' incomes to support higher prices and forecast Leith and Granton's development into a prosperous suburb offering a range of accommodation for a variety of life stages. As a result of these findings, Forth Ports have secured further investment for continued development activity in the Leith & Granton areas and have a robust document providing a total consumer-led strategy for development in Leith and Granton.

According to Charles Hammond, Group Chief Executive of Forth Ports PLC:

“CACI’s rigorous economic study of buying activity has helped Forth Ports PLC understand patterns of urban regeneration in north Edinburgh and given us confidence in the long term prospects for large scale residential development in Leith and Granton. CACI continue to work with Forth Ports as a key part of the planning team and play an essential role in helping us explain our vision to shareholders, development partners and key stakeholders.”

	ACORN
	Property Housing