Dunedin Property Asset Management

Dunedin Property is a private property company with offices in London and Edinburgh, and currently manages commercial properties with a combined value of over £600 million.

The challenge

Dunedin own three shopping centres in Shrewsbury and plan to redevelop, extend, and ultimately integrate these centres into one scheme. Dunedin instructed CACI to advise on strategies for maximising this unique opportunity.

In particular CACI’s analysis focused on:

	Multiple-scenario assessment of catchment uplift resulting from the redevelopment of the three centres
	A detailed analysis of current tenant mix and strategies for optimising tenant mix in the future integrated scheme
	Tenant recommendations for each product sector, including clothing, leisure, house & home and catering

The solution

The first stage of CACI’s analysis involved establishing the extent of additional retail sales attracted to Shrewsbury resulting from the redevelopment and extension of the three centres. This involved re-scoring Shrewsbury within CACI’s Retail Footprint gravity model, to take into account the scale and nature of the proposed redevelopment. Chester, Wolverhampton and Stoke-on-Trent, among others, were also re-scored, to take into account competing retail development in these centres.

CACI, recognising Shrewsbury’s status as a key regional tourist destination, additionally undertook analysis of tourist potential, in order to ensure all elements of expenditure in Shrewsbury were quantified. Via this revised gravity model, CACI was then able to recalculate post development shopper flows to Shrewsbury and competing retail centres, and establish the viability of the new scheme.

CACI then established Shrewsbury's postdevelopment ACORN profile and, using ACORN correlation techniques, were able to analyse under or over provision within Shrewsbury’s current retail mix relative to identified benchmark centres, and thus opportunities for focus within the future scheme’s category mix. As part of this exercise, CACI conducted a detailed retail floorspace audit of all retailers currently trading in Shrewsbury, which effectively validated these conclusions on under/over-provision, as well as providing analysis by retail pitch, market positioning and operator configuration.

The second stage of CACI’s tenant mix strategy focused on potential retail occupiers in line with this optimum sector mix. CACI’s approach was to look at retailers currently trading in Shrewsbury and Shrewsbury’s correlation with their overall customer base, in order to highlight those retailers with the greatest potential for strong performance and therefore opportunities for relocation/displacement into the new scheme.

CACI then used ACORN correlation techniques to assess the potential of retailers not currently trading in Shrewsbury who may view Shrewsbury as a viable addition to their portfolio. CACI devised a prioritised sector by sector tenant mix strategy for Dunedin, highlighting specific retailers for consideration within the final tenant mix. Particular attention was paid to potential anchor store operators, as the key drivers of footfall within the future scheme.

The results and benefits

CACI left Dunedin with a complete tenant mix strategy, highlighting key categories for focus within the overall category mix, as well as retailers to retain from Dunedin’s existing shopping centres, or relocate from other areas of retail pitch in Shrewsbury.

CACI also provided Dunedin with recommendations on retailers not currently trading in Shrewsbury, in order to prioritise and support future lettings for the new scheme.

Ian Solley, Director at Dunedin Property Asset Management comments,

“We turned to CACI for an in-depth, independent report on Shrewsbury to help us to fully understand the potential of the future scheme and to provide guidance and support in identifying the anticipated market and op timum tenant mix. The report was delivered on time and exceeded our expectations, enabling us to progress our proposals with confidence."

Retail Footprint