Credit crunch resistant retail centres unveiled.
Credit crunch resistant retail centres are unveiled as CACI's annual Retail Footprint study gives latest retail expenditure rankings and forecasts for 2012.
The retail destinations most resistant to the credit crunch have been unveiled, with towns in the south east shown as the most likely to weather the economic storm.
Centres including Epsom, Guildford and High Wycombe top the list of areas with a high proportion of 'credit crunch resistant' shoppers in their catchment areas. Here they account for more than a quarter of shopping spend against a national average of 14 per cent.
Bradford, Barnsley and Walsall head a list of risk centres with a low proportion of spend in their catchments.
The findings, unveiled at market information analyst CACI's annual Retail Footprint Briefing on 30 April, show a clear geographic divide in the location of credit crunch resistant centres. Whereas all of the top 15 most resistant destinations are from the South East and Home Counties, the 15 most at risk are based in the Midlands or further north. Full lists follow at the end of this release.
Outside the South East, the most resistant centres are found in Harrogate and Chester.
Credit crunch resistant consumers are people aged over 55, with the majority retired. They are generally better-off couples whose children have left home. These wealthy people have no mortgages or loans and their income is well above the norm. The proportion of households earning over £100,000 is one and a half times the national average and levels of savings and investments are high. Sainsbury's and Marks & Spencer are favoured for the weekly shop. They also tend to shop at John Lewis department stores.
Nielsen Harrap, Principal Consultant - Location Planning, CACI said:
"The top 15 most resistant locations are attracting these kinds of shoppers with their upmarket offer. The Guildfords, Kingstons, Readings and Tunbridge Wells of this world are those that are going to see little impact from the lack of the 'borrow now pay later' attitude previously seen in our economy. Those that could feel the pinch include Bradford, Sunderland and Doncaster.
"In the current market climate the competition for consumers' money will be fiercer than ever. Retailers can make gains where others lose by understanding the retail landscape and shopper behaviour."
Retail Footprint expenditure rankings
The credit crunch resistant league tables vary considerably from the annual Retail Footprint league table, also unveiled today and which ranks retail destinations by expenditure. London West End is at number one, followed in order by Birmingham, Manchester, Glasgow and Leeds. Nottingham, Liverpool, Bluewater, Norwich and Reading complete the top ten. The study ranks 3,851 centres in total - the top 50 are listed in the attached pdf together with maps illustrating location.
Projections for 2012
Retail Footprint also analyses the impact of new retail development over the next few years and projects how the rankings will alter as a result by 2012.
- London sub-markets - Westfield London, which opens in October this year and is based in west London, will be the UK's number nine destination. Stratford City in the east, part of our Olympic bid and with 1.9 million sq ft of space, will be number eight.
- Leicester - will see a 30 per cent increase in expenditure following the opening this September of Highcross Leicester.
- Nottingham - Westfield's 800,000 sq ft extension to the Broadmarsh Centre will see Nottingham consolidate its position at number six in the rankings with a 16 per cent increase in expenditure.
Nielsen Harrap continues: "Retailers and developers with stores or investment in nearby centres will be affected by new large-scale schemes. They need to consider the implications and potential impact on turnover and know which schemes pose a threat, to help meet commercial challenges in what looks set to be a tougher yet still competitive market over the next few years."
For further information contact Graeme Buck / Emily Luscombe, Camargue, tel 020 7636 7366.
Notes to editors:
1. The top 15 credit crunch resistant retail destinations and the top 15 at risk centres are:
|Resistant Centres (with credit crunch resistant shoppers as a percentage of spend - national average = 14 per cent)||Risk Centres (with credit crunch resistant shoppers as a percentage of spend, lowest listed first)|
|1||Epsom - 26.3 per cent||Bradford - 8.6 per cent|
|2||Guildford - 26.0 per cent||Barnsley - 8.9 per cent|
|3||High Wycombe - 25.1 per cent||Walsall - 9.5 per cent|
|4||Camberley - 24.8 per cent||Sunderland - 9.6 per cent|
|5||Tunbridge Wells - 24.6 per cent||Stoke-on-Trent - Hanley - 9.9 per cent|
|6||Woking - 24.2 per cent||Mansfield - 9.9 per cent|
|7||Bishop's Stortford - 24.1 per cent||Doncaster - 10.1 per cent|
|8||Horsham - 23.4 per cent||Middlesborough - 10.6 per cent|
|9||Winchester - 23.4 per cent||Birmingham - Fort Shopping Park - 10.6 per cent|
|10||Chelmsford - 22.9 per cent||Grimsby - 10.9 per cent|
|11||Kingston-upon-Thames - 22.4 per cent||Meadowhall - 11.0 per cent|
|12||Reading - 22.4 per cent||Scarborough - 11.0 per cent|
|13||Bicester Village - 22.3 per cent||Wolverhampton - 11.0 per cent|
|14||Newbury - 22.2 per cent||Leeds - White Rose - 11.0 per cent|
|15||Aylesbury - 22.1 per cent||Blackpool - 11.0 per cent|
2. The Retail Footprint Top 50 rankings - which differ to the credit crunch data above - can be found in the attached pdf file.
3. The credit crunch resistant consumer data was compiled using FRESCO, CACI's individual segmentation tool driven by financial behaviour. Jointly owned with Gfk NOP and using the Financial Research Survey, it is used by almost all major financial organisations within the UK and provides a detailed picture of financial attitudes and behaviour.
4. CACI's Retail Footprint analyses current and future shopping patterns, classifying retail centres into over 50 different types according to retail mix, market positioning and evolving shopping role. The annual ranking provides a definitive and independent guide to UK retail centres, helping retailers and property investors monitor changing dynamics and likely impact on investments.