Analysis highlights areas of the country most likely to face growing health problems and offers insight into where resource should be focused.

The Primary Care Trusts and local authorities with the most significant looming health problems among their populations have been revealed.

The analysis, conducted by CACI and TNS through their HealthACORN methodology, focuses on the areas across the UK that have the highest proportions of people classified as having 'future health problems' - people whose lifestyle and behaviour indicates that they will be unhealthy in the future even if they do not have a high incidence of serious illness at present.

The findings will allow healthcare providers to look not just at current provision but the extent to which they need to plan to cope with the health problems of people in years to come.

Six London-based Primary Care Trusts (PCTs) are in the top ten problem areas, headed by Tower Hamlets PCT, with the majority of other highly-ranked bodies also from urban areas. Some 50.4 per cent of the PCT population in Tower Hamlets is currently generally well but because of lifestyles is likely to have health problems going forward.

South Gloucestershire PCT is ranked as the one least likely to have people in its area harbouring future health problems, with only 1.8 per cent of people fitting the same criteria.

The characteristics of people in the HealthACORN Future Health Problems demographic group include:

• A higher incidence of smoking than the average.
• A higher incidence of obesity than the average.
• A poor diet, with low fruit and vegetable consumption and higher consumption of fast food and sugary drinks than the norm.
• Compared with the average, are younger, have more children, and are more likely to be single parents, unemployed and live in social housing.

Not all will become seriously ill in the future, but group members exhibit characteristics, which make them more likely to do so than the average person.

To produce its rankings, CACI examined the numbers falling into this group for all authorities in the country and identified the proportion of the total population in each area that the group accounts for. The analysis also found that some GP surgeries serve a population where 100 per cent of people fall into the group. The average across the UK is 12.2 per cent.

"For those authorities looking to plan ahead and agree how to allocate precious resource, the findings may prove vital," said Ian Thurman, Head of Location Planning at CACI. "They allow authorities to act now to counter looming problems in their areas even if people may seem generally healthy and are not currently presenting themselves at GPs' surgeries or hospitals.

"The analysis also threw up some interesting points. Our rankings show five PCTs* which given their position could make a case for more resource to tackle looming health problems but which do not fall into the Government's Spearhead Group of 88 areas targeted for health improvement. With Camden PCT, for example, as high as number 11 in our problem rankings and four others in our top 50 there is a case for re-evaluating the focus of health improvement initiatives to ensure funds are allocated appropriately. Communities with high levels of Future Health Problems offer the best opportunities for the promotion of good health and a reduction in future demand on the NHS. There are dangers in focusing too much on existing heavy NHS users. As stated in the Choosing Health White Paper, 'health is inextricably linked to the way people live their lives.'

"On a separate but still important point," Ian continues, "we also examined whether people in the higher-ranked authorities have little access to gyms or health clubs as a route to keep healthy. We found that this isn't the case. City and Hackney Teaching PCT, third in the problem list, has 39 gyms or health clubs in its area, one of the largest numbers in the country. Rhondda Cynon Taff Local Health Board has just one, yet is in the top ten for areas least likely to experience future health problems. Clearly in our problem areas people either don't have the inclination to join a gym, or the money."

* Camden PCT, at no 11 in HealthACORN's rankings; Darlington PCT (no 37), Derby City PCT (no 40), Peterborough PCT (no 41), Telford and Wrekin PCT (no 43).

Top twenty authorities with highest proportion of people with Future Health Problems

Top twenty authorities with lowest proportion of people with Future Health Problems

PCT = Primary Care Trust
LHB = Local Health Board
CHP = Community Health Partnership
CHCP = Community Health and Care Partnership
LHSCG = Local Health and Social Care Group

Please click here to download the PCT Ranking spreadsheet.

For further information contact Graeme Buck / Julie Struber, Camargue, tel 020 7636 7366.

Notes to editors:

About HealthACORN:

HealthACORN analysis is produced using a unique combination of official data and commercial information from lifestyle surveys, market research and Census data. It is produced by CACI in conjunction with TNS.

HealthACORN uses data from Britain's 1.9 million postcodes, which have been described using more than 125 demographic statistics with England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, taking into account 287 lifestyle variables.

ACORN stands for A Classification of Residential Neighbourhoods.

About TNS:

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